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Menzel Bouzelfa vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Bouzelfa
Menzel Bouzelfa
FT
1 – 1
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
2/14/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Arbi Farfra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Menzel Bouzelfa42%
×Draw30%
Sporting Ben Arous28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.13
Sporting Ben Arous
0.87

Menzel Bouzelfa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 46 away

creates per match

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.00
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.20
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Menzel Bouzelfa+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bouzelfa ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Bouzelfa or draw
72%
Menzel Bouzelfa or Sporting Ben Arous
70%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
58%

Winning margin

Menzel Bouzelfa wins by 2+
17%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Menzel Bouzelfa 1+ goals
68%
Menzel Bouzelfa 2+ goals
31%
Menzel Bouzelfa 3+ goals
11%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
58%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
22%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bouzelfa (draw refunded)
60%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bouzelfa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bouzelfa attack 1.00 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Menzel Bouzelfa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Menzel Bouzelfa scores more
42%
level
30%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
28%

Menzel Bouzelfa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Menzel Bouzelfa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menzel Bouzelfa vs Sporting Ben Arous

Menzel Bouzelfa and Sporting Ben Arous drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Arbi Farfra in Menzel Bouzelfa.