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Menzel Bouzelfa vs Sfax Railways — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Bouzelfa
Menzel Bouzelfa
FT
1 – 1
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
3/13/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Arbi Farfra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Menzel Bouzelfa35%
×Draw30%
Sfax Railways35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.07
Sfax Railways
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 37 away

creates per match

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.00
Sfax Railways
0.97

allows per match

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.20
Sfax Railways
1.14

finishing

Menzel Bouzelfa+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bouzelfa ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Menzel Bouzelfa or draw
65%
Menzel Bouzelfa or Sfax Railways
70%
Draw or Sfax Railways
65%

Winning margin

Menzel Bouzelfa wins by 2+
14%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Menzel Bouzelfa 1+ goals
66%
Menzel Bouzelfa 2+ goals
29%
Menzel Bouzelfa 3+ goals
9%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
66%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
29%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bouzelfa (draw refunded)
50%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bouzelfa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bouzelfa attack 1.00 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Menzel Bouzelfa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Menzel Bouzelfa scores more
35%
level
30%
Sfax Railways scores more
35%

Menzel Bouzelfa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Menzel Bouzelfa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Menzel Bouzelfa 1–1 Sfax Railways

Menzel Bouzelfa and Sfax Railways drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Arbi Farfra in Menzel Bouzelfa.