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Menzel Bourguiba vs Radès — Cup 2019

Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
FT
2 – 1
Radès
Radès
10/14/2018CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Azaiez Jaballah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba46%
×Draw29%
Radès25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bourguiba
1.25
Radès
0.84

Menzel Bourguiba creates 49% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba
1.00
Radès
0.88

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.80
Radès
1.50

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par
Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

Radès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw
75%
Menzel Bourguiba or Radès
71%
Draw or Radès
54%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
21%
Radès wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
71%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
36%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
13%
Radès 1+ goals
57%
Radès 2+ goals
21%
Radès 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
65%
Radès (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Radès away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + Radès defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Radès attack 0.88 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more
46%
level
29%
Radès scores more
25%

Menzel Bourguiba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Menzel Bourguiba 2–1 Radès

Menzel Bourguiba beat Radès 2-1 in Cup on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Azaiez Jaballah in Menzel Bourguiba.