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Menzel Bourguiba vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
G. Hamdi 48'
T. E. Mehdaoui 40'
M. Ben Salah 60'
5/5/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Azaiez Jaballah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba48%
×Draw29%
Kalaâ Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bourguiba
1.25
Kalaâ Sport
0.77

Menzel Bourguiba creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 61 away

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba
1.00
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.85
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw
77%
Menzel Bourguiba or Kalaâ Sport
71%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
52%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
22%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
71%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
36%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
13%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
54%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
18%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
68%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more
48%
level
29%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
23%

Menzel Bourguiba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
T. E. Mehdaoui
48'
G. Hamdi
60'
M. Ben Salah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Menzel Bourguiba 2–1 Kalaâ Sport

Menzel Bourguiba beat Kalaâ Sport 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 5, 2025.

Goals: T. E. Mehdaoui (40'), G. Hamdi (48'), M. Ben Salah (60').

The match was played at Stade Azaiez Jaballah in Menzel Bourguiba.