Mensajero 2–0 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Mensajero

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Santa Brígida

4/26/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mensajero57%

×Draw23%

Villa Santa Brígida20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MensajeroExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.99

Mensajero

1.81

Villa Santa Brígida

0.99

Mensajero creates 83% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 109 away

2.10

creates per match

0.96

1.03

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Mensajero

2.10

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Mensajero

1.03

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw

80%

Mensajero or Villa Santa Brígida

77%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

43%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+

32%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals

84%

Mensajero 2+ goals

54%

Mensajero 3+ goals

27%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

63%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

26%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)

73%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.81

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mensajero scores more

57%

level

23%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

20%

Mensajero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff