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Mensajero vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
CANC
00:00
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mensajero62%
×Draw21%
Unión Viera17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
2.02
Unión Viera
0.95

Mensajero creates 113% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
83%
Mensajero or Unión Viera
79%
Draw or Unión Viera
38%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
38%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
87%
Mensajero 2+ goals
60%
Mensajero 3+ goals
33%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
61%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
25%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
78%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mensajero scores more
62%
level
21%
Unión Viera scores more
17%

Mensajero at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mensajero vs Unión Viera — Match Preview

Mensajero face Unión Viera on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mensajero host Unión Viera at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.