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Mensajero vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Mensajero46%
×Draw25%
UD San Fernando28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.54
UD San Fernando
1.15

Mensajero creates 34% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 76 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
72%
Mensajero or UD San Fernando
75%
Draw or UD San Fernando
54%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
23%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
79%
Mensajero 2+ goals
45%
Mensajero 3+ goals
20%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
68%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
32%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
62%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mensajero scores more
46%
level
25%
UD San Fernando scores more
28%

Mensajero at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mensajero vs UD San Fernando

Mensajero beat UD San Fernando 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma).