Mensajero 2–0 San Bartolomé: Result & Stats

Mensajero

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Bartolomé

9/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mensajero57%

×Draw23%

San Bartolomé21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MensajeroExpected goals in this matchSan Bartolomé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.02

Mensajero

1.86

San Bartolomé

1.02

Mensajero creates 82% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

2.10

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Mensajero

2.10

San Bartolomé

1.00

allows per match

Mensajero

1.03

San Bartolomé

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

San Bartolomé →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw

79%

Mensajero or San Bartolomé

77%

Draw or San Bartolomé

43%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+

33%

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals

84%

Mensajero 2+ goals

55%

Mensajero 3+ goals

28%

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

64%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

27%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)

74%

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.86

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mensajero scores more

57%

level

23%

San Bartolomé scores more

21%

Mensajero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff