Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mensajero vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
D. Grande 78'
E. Arrocha 73'
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 10Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mensajero56%
×Draw25%
Real Unión de Tenerife19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.61
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.81

Mensajero creates 99% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
81%
Mensajero or Real Unión de Tenerife
75%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
44%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
30%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
80%
Mensajero 2+ goals
48%
Mensajero 3+ goals
22%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
56%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
19%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
75%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mensajero scores more
56%
level
25%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
19%

Mensajero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
E. Arrocha
78'
D. Grande

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mensajero vs Real Unión de Tenerife

Mensajero beat Real Unión de Tenerife 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Arrocha (73'), D. Grande (78').

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma).