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Mensajero vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mensajero66%
×Draw21%
Los Llanos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.96
Los Llanos
0.72

Mensajero creates 172% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
87%
Mensajero or Los Llanos
79%
Draw or Los Llanos
34%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
41%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
86%
Mensajero 2+ goals
58%
Mensajero 3+ goals
31%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
51%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
16%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
84%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mensajero scores more
66%
level
21%
Los Llanos scores more
13%

Mensajero at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mensajero vs Los Llanos

Mensajero beat Los Llanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.