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Mensajero vs Herbania — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Herbania
Herbania
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mensajero60%
×Draw23%
Herbania17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.79
Herbania
0.84

Mensajero creates 113% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Herbania
0.66

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Herbania
1.49

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Herbania+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Herbania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
83%
Mensajero or Herbania
77%
Draw or Herbania
40%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
34%
Herbania wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
83%
Mensajero 2+ goals
53%
Mensajero 3+ goals
26%
Herbania 1+ goals
57%
Herbania 2+ goals
21%
Herbania 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
78%
Herbania (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Herbania away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Herbania defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Herbania attack 0.66 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mensajero scores more
60%
level
23%
Herbania scores more
17%

Mensajero at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mensajero vs Herbania

Mensajero beat Herbania 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.