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Mensajero vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Estrella
Estrella
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mensajero70%
×Draw18%
Estrella12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
2.24
Estrella
0.80

Mensajero creates 180% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
88%
Mensajero or Estrella
82%
Draw or Estrella
30%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
46%
Estrella wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
89%
Mensajero 2+ goals
65%
Mensajero 3+ goals
38%
Estrella 1+ goals
55%
Estrella 2+ goals
19%
Estrella 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
85%
Estrella (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.24

Estrella attack 0.56 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mensajero scores more
70%
level
18%
Estrella scores more
12%

Mensajero at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mensajero vs Estrella

Mensajero beat Estrella 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.