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Ménfőcsanak vs Hévíz — NB III - Southwest 2019

Ménfőcsanak
Ménfőcsanak
CANC
00:00
Hévíz
Hévíz
4/19/2020NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 24Ménfőcsanak ESK Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ménfőcsanak48%
×Draw25%
Hévíz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ménfőcsanak
1.58
Hévíz
1.13

Ménfőcsanak creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ménfőcsanak
1.29
Hévíz
1.00

allows per match

Ménfőcsanak
1.25
Hévíz
1.88

finishing

Ménfőcsanak+0.00on par
Hévíz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ménfőcsanak ↓

Hévíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ménfőcsanak or draw
73%
Ménfőcsanak or Hévíz
75%
Draw or Hévíz
52%

Winning margin

Ménfőcsanak wins by 2+
25%
Hévíz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ménfőcsanak 1+ goals
79%
Ménfőcsanak 2+ goals
47%
Ménfőcsanak 3+ goals
21%
Hévíz 1+ goals
68%
Hévíz 2+ goals
31%
Hévíz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ménfőcsanak (draw refunded)
64%
Hévíz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ménfőcsanak at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Hévíz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ménfőcsanak attack 1.29 + Hévíz defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hévíz attack 1.00 + Ménfőcsanak defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ménfőcsanak scores more
48%
level
25%
Hévíz scores more
27%

Ménfőcsanak at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ménfőcsanak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ménfőcsanak vs Hévíz — Match Preview

Ménfőcsanak face Hévíz on April 19, 2020 in this NB III - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ménfőcsanak host Hévíz at Ménfőcsanak ESK Sporttelep.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.