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Menemen FK vs Nevşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Menemen FK
Menemen FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nevşehir Belediyespor
Nevşehir Belediyespor
11/1/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundGazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Menemen FK65%
×Draw21%
Nevşehir Belediyespor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menemen FK
1.92
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.75

Menemen FK creates 156% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Menemen FK
1.83
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.67

allows per match

Menemen FK
0.83
Nevşehir Belediyespor
2.00

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par
Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Nevşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw
86%
Menemen FK or Nevşehir Belediyespor
79%
Draw or Nevşehir Belediyespor
35%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+
39%
Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals
85%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
57%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
30%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
53%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
17%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)
82%
Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.83 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 0.67 + Menemen FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Menemen FK scores more
65%
level
21%
Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more
14%

Menemen FK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menemen FK vs Nevşehir Belediyespor

Menemen FK beat Nevşehir Belediyespor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadı in Tire.