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Menemen FK vs Kırşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Menemen FK
Menemen FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMenemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Menemen FK72%
×Draw18%
Kırşehir Belediyespor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menemen FK
2.17
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.67

Menemen FK creates 224% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Menemen FK
1.83
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.50

allows per match

Menemen FK
0.83
Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.50

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par
Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw
90%
Menemen FK or Kırşehir Belediyespor
82%
Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor
28%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+
47%
Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals
89%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
64%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
36%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
49%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
15%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)
88%
Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.83 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Menemen FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Menemen FK scores more
72%
level
18%
Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
10%

Menemen FK at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menemen FK vs Kırşehir Belediyespor

Menemen FK beat Kırşehir Belediyespor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Menemen Şehir Stadı in Menemen.