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Menemen FK vs Ankaragücü — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Menemen FK
Menemen FK
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
12/18/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundMenemen İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Menemen FK54%
×Draw23%
Ankaragücü23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menemen FK
1.81
Ankaragücü
1.08

Menemen FK creates 68% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Menemen FK
1.83
Ankaragücü
1.33

allows per match

Menemen FK
0.83
Ankaragücü
1.78

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par
Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Ankaragücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw
77%
Menemen FK or Ankaragücü
77%
Draw or Ankaragücü
46%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+
31%
Ankaragücü wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals
84%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
54%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
27%
Ankaragücü 1+ goals
66%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
29%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)
71%
Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.83 + Ankaragücü defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ankaragücü attack 1.33 + Menemen FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Menemen FK scores more
54%
level
23%
Ankaragücü scores more
23%

Menemen FK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menemen FK vs Ankaragücü

Ankaragücü beat Menemen FK 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 18, 2024.

The match was played at Menemen İlçe Stadı in Menemen.