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Menemen FK vs 24 Erzincanspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Menemen FK
Menemen FK
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
24 Erzincanspor
24 Erzincanspor
11/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMenemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Menemen FK64%
×Draw20%
24 Erzincanspor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menemen FK
2.06
24 Erzincanspor
0.92

Menemen FK creates 124% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Menemen FK
1.83
24 Erzincanspor
1.00

allows per match

Menemen FK
0.83
24 Erzincanspor
2.29

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par
24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

24 Erzincanspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw
84%
Menemen FK or 24 Erzincanspor
80%
Draw or 24 Erzincanspor
36%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+
39%
24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals
87%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
61%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
34%
24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals
60%
24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals
23%
24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)
80%
24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

24 Erzincanspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.83 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.00 + Menemen FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Menemen FK scores more
64%
level
20%
24 Erzincanspor scores more
16%

Menemen FK at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menemen FK vs 24 Erzincanspor

Menemen FK and 24 Erzincanspor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Menemen Şehir Stadı in Menemen.