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Mendrisio vs Wettswil-Bonstetten — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Mendrisio
Mendrisio
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wettswil-Bonstetten
Wettswil-Bonstetten
9/13/20251. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Campo comunale Mendrisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mendrisio34%
×Draw25%
Wettswil-Bonstetten40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mendrisio
1.31
Wettswil-Bonstetten
1.45

Wettswil-Bonstetten creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 87 away

creates per match

Mendrisio
1.62
Wettswil-Bonstetten
1.62

allows per match

Mendrisio
1.27
Wettswil-Bonstetten
1.00

finishing

Mendrisio+0.00on par
Wettswil-Bonstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendrisio ↓

Wettswil-Bonstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mendrisio or draw
60%
Mendrisio or Wettswil-Bonstetten
75%
Draw or Wettswil-Bonstetten
66%

Winning margin

Mendrisio wins by 2+
15%
Wettswil-Bonstetten wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mendrisio 1+ goals
73%
Mendrisio 2+ goals
38%
Mendrisio 3+ goals
14%
Wettswil-Bonstetten 1+ goals
77%
Wettswil-Bonstetten 2+ goals
42%
Wettswil-Bonstetten 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mendrisio (draw refunded)
46%
Wettswil-Bonstetten (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendrisio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Wettswil-Bonstetten away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendrisio attack 1.62 + Wettswil-Bonstetten defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wettswil-Bonstetten attack 1.62 + Mendrisio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mendrisio scores more
34%
level
25%
Wettswil-Bonstetten scores more
40%

Wettswil-Bonstetten at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wettswil-Bonstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mendrisio vs Wettswil-Bonstetten

Wettswil-Bonstetten beat Mendrisio 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Campo comunale Mendrisio in Mendrisio.