Mendrisio 2–0 Uzwil: Result & Stats

Mendrisio

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uzwil

8/6/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo comunale Mendrisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mendrisio54%

×Draw22%

Uzwil25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MendrisioExpected goals in this matchUzwil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.31

Mendrisio

2.03

Uzwil

1.31

Mendrisio creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

1.62

creates per match

1.36

1.27

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Mendrisio

1.62

Uzwil

1.36

allows per match

Mendrisio

1.27

Uzwil

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mendrisio+0.00on par

Uzwil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendrisio ↓

Uzwil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mendrisio or draw

75%

Mendrisio or Uzwil

78%

Draw or Uzwil

46%

Winning margin

Mendrisio wins by 2+

32%

Uzwil wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mendrisio 1+ goals

87%

Mendrisio 2+ goals

60%

Mendrisio 3+ goals

33%

Uzwil 1+ goals

73%

Uzwil 2+ goals

38%

Uzwil 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mendrisio (draw refunded)

69%

Uzwil (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendrisio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Uzwil away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.43 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendrisio attack 1.62 + Uzwil defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.03

Uzwil attack 1.36 + Mendrisio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mendrisio scores more

54%

level

22%

Uzwil scores more

25%

Mendrisio at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mendrisio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff