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Mendrisio vs Tuggen — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Mendrisio
Mendrisio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuggen
Tuggen
3/29/20251. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Campo comunale Mendrisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mendrisio39%
×Draw23%
Tuggen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mendrisio
1.61
Tuggen
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mendrisio
1.62
Tuggen
1.92

allows per match

Mendrisio
1.27
Tuggen
1.60

finishing

Mendrisio+0.00on par
Tuggen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendrisio ↓

Tuggen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mendrisio or draw
62%
Mendrisio or Tuggen
77%
Draw or Tuggen
61%

Winning margin

Mendrisio wins by 2+
19%
Tuggen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mendrisio 1+ goals
80%
Mendrisio 2+ goals
48%
Mendrisio 3+ goals
22%
Tuggen 1+ goals
80%
Tuggen 2+ goals
47%
Tuggen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mendrisio (draw refunded)
51%
Tuggen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendrisio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Tuggen away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendrisio attack 1.62 + Tuggen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tuggen attack 1.92 + Mendrisio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mendrisio scores more
39%
level
23%
Tuggen scores more
38%

Mendrisio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mendrisio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mendrisio vs Tuggen

Mendrisio beat Tuggen 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Campo comunale Mendrisio in Mendrisio.