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Mendrisio vs Höngg — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Mendrisio
Mendrisio
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Höngg
Höngg
10/11/20251. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Campo comunale Mendrisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mendrisio49%
×Draw24%
Höngg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mendrisio
1.75
Höngg
1.27

Mendrisio creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

creates per match

Mendrisio
1.62
Höngg
1.28

allows per match

Mendrisio
1.27
Höngg
1.89

finishing

Mendrisio+0.00on par
Höngg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendrisio ↓

Höngg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mendrisio or draw
72%
Mendrisio or Höngg
76%
Draw or Höngg
51%

Winning margin

Mendrisio wins by 2+
26%
Höngg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mendrisio 1+ goals
83%
Mendrisio 2+ goals
52%
Mendrisio 3+ goals
25%
Höngg 1+ goals
72%
Höngg 2+ goals
36%
Höngg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mendrisio (draw refunded)
64%
Höngg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendrisio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Höngg away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.89 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendrisio attack 1.62 + Höngg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Höngg attack 1.28 + Mendrisio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mendrisio scores more
49%
level
24%
Höngg scores more
28%

Mendrisio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mendrisio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mendrisio vs Höngg

Mendrisio beat Höngg 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo comunale Mendrisio in Mendrisio.