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Mendiola vs Azkals — PFL 2020

Mendiola
Mendiola
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Azkals
Azkals
11/6/2022PFLPFL · Round 5City of Imus Grandstand

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mendiola10%
×Draw14%
Azkals76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mendiola
0.98
Azkals
2.91

Azkals creates 197% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mendiola
0.86
Azkals
1.70

allows per match

Mendiola
4.11
Azkals
1.10

finishing

Mendiola+0.00on par
Azkals+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendiola ↓

Azkals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mendiola or draw
24%
Mendiola or Azkals
86%
Draw or Azkals
90%

Winning margin

Mendiola wins by 2+
3%
Azkals wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Mendiola 1+ goals
62%
Mendiola 2+ goals
26%
Mendiola 3+ goals
8%
Azkals 1+ goals
94%
Azkals 2+ goals
78%
Azkals 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Mendiola (draw refunded)
12%
Azkals (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendiola at home — creates 0.86, concedes 4.11 · 37 matches

Azkals away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendiola attack 0.86 + Azkals defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Azkals attack 1.70 + Mendiola defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Mendiola scores more
10%
level
14%
Azkals scores more
76%

Azkals at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Azkals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Mendiola 1–3 Azkals

Azkals beat Mendiola 3-1 in PFL on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at City of Imus Grandstand in City of Imus.