Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Istaravshan vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2012

Istaravshan
Istaravshan
FT
2 – 1
Khatlon
Khatlon
5/26/2012Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Stadion Rodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Istaravshan37%
×Draw26%
Khatlon37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istaravshan
1.32
Khatlon
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Istaravshan
1.23
Khatlon
1.25

allows per match

Istaravshan
1.38
Khatlon
1.41

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw
63%
Istaravshan or Khatlon
74%
Draw or Khatlon
63%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+
17%
Khatlon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals
73%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
38%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
15%
Khatlon 1+ goals
73%
Khatlon 2+ goals
38%
Khatlon 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)
50%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.23 + Khatlon defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Khatlon attack 1.25 + Istaravshan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Istaravshan scores more
37%
level
26%
Khatlon scores more
37%

Istaravshan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istaravshan 2–1 Khatlon

Istaravshan beat Khatlon 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 26, 2012.

The match was played at Stadion Rodnik in Nay.