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Stabaek vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
S. Pedersen 90'
G. Martin 51'
S. Sinyan 35'
10/1/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Nadderud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Stabaek43%
×Draw25%
Lillestrom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.50
Lillestrom
1.26

Stabaek creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 83 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.25
Lillestrom
1.24

allows per match

Stabaek
1.28
Lillestrom
1.75

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Lillestrom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
68%
Stabaek or Lillestrom
75%
Draw or Lillestrom
57%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
21%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
78%
Stabaek 2+ goals
44%
Stabaek 3+ goals
19%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
72%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
36%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
57%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.25 + Lillestrom defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lillestrom attack 1.24 + Stabaek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stabaek scores more
43%
level
25%
Lillestrom scores more
32%

Stabaek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
B. MelingStabaekStabaek · D
7.5

Match Events

23'
G. Martin← E. Knudtzon
25'
Hakon Skogseid
35'
S. Sinyan↳ B. Innocent
45'
Arnold Origi
51'
G. Martin↳ I. Mathew
57'
A. Mehmeti← M. Escoe
67'
O. Omoijuanfo← Alanzinho
68'
Bonke Innocent
69'
Andreas Hanche-Olsen
80'
S. Pedersen← A. Hanche-Olsen
90'
S. Pedersen↳ C. Grossman

Possession

70%Stabaek

Shots

15Stabaek

Pass accuracy

59%Stabaek

Statistics

StabaekLillestrom
Overview
70%Possession30%
15Total Shots11
4Corners2
12Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target4
2Off Target5
7Blocked2
6Inside Box3
9Outside Box8
Passing
70%Possession30%
497Total Passes211
408Accurate Passes120
82%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Eliteserien: Stabaek 1–2 Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat Stabaek 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 1, 2016.

Goals: S. Sinyan (35'), G. Martin (51'), S. Pedersen (90').

Stabaek controlled possession (70%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Nadderud in Baerum.