AZ Alkmaar 4–0 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

ADO Den Haag

F. Friday 60'

J. van Overeem 34'

D. dos Santos 13', 7'

3/19/2017

Eredivisie · Round 27AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

AZ Alkmaar63%

×Draw20%

ADO Den Haag17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.08

AZ Alkmaar

2.23

ADO Den Haag

1.08

AZ Alkmaar creates 106% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 53 away

2.22

creates per match

1.08

1.07

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.22

ADO Den Haag

1.08

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.07

ADO Den Haag

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

83%

AZ Alkmaar or ADO Den Haag

80%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

37%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

40%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

89%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

65%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

38%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

66%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

29%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

78%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 135 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.22 + ADO Den Haag defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

63%

level

20%

ADO Den Haag scores more

17%

AZ Alkmaar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Wuytens

AZ Alkmaar · D

8.5

Match Events

7'

D. dos Santos↳ A. Jahanbakhsh

13'

D. dos Santos↳ S. Wuytens

20'

Derrick Luckassen

34'

J. van Overeem↳ S. Wuytens

36'

Jonas Svensson

46'

T. Trybull← D. Bakker

60'

F. Friday↳ J. van Overeem

63'

R. Wolters← R. Schaken

64'

Tyronne Ebuehi

69'

R. Vlaar← D. Luckassen

72'

L. Garcia← D. dos Santos

79'

Joris Van Overeem

79'

G. Til← A. Jahanbakhsh

80'

Stijn Wuytens

82'

A. El Khayati← D. Malone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AZADO

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots12

4Corners9

19Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots12

7On Target2

6Off Target5

4Blocked5

13Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

474Total Passes361

383Accurate Passes284

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1