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ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2026

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
11/11/2018EredivisieEredivisie · Round 12Cars Jeans Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

ADO Den Haag29%
×Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.27
AZ Alkmaar
1.69

AZ Alkmaar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 131 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
1.25
AZ Alkmaar
1.66

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.73
AZ Alkmaar
1.29

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
53%
ADO Den Haag or AZ Alkmaar
76%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
71%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
12%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
72%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
36%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
14%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
82%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
50%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
38%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 1.25 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.66 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
29%
level
24%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
47%

AZ Alkmaar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: ADO Den Haag 0–1 AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 in Eredivisie on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Cars Jeans Stadion in Den Haag.