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Emirates Club vs Al Nasr — League #301 2026

Emirates Club
Emirates Club
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Nasr
Al Nasr
Eisa Ali 90+7'
C. Diabaté 84', 36'
Samuel 81'
Álvaro Negredo 76' (pen), 32'
10/31/2018League #301League #301 · Round 8Emirates Club Stadium (Rās al-Khaymah (Ras al-Khaimah))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Emirates Club34%
×Draw23%
Al Nasr43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emirates Club
1.53
Al Nasr
1.73

Al Nasr creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 41 away

creates per match

Emirates Club
1.44
Al Nasr
1.34

allows per match

Emirates Club
2.11
Al Nasr
1.63

finishing

Emirates Club+0.00on par
Al Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emirates Club ↓

Al Nasr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Emirates Club or draw
57%
Emirates Club or Al Nasr
77%
Draw or Al Nasr
66%

Winning margin

Emirates Club wins by 2+
16%
Al Nasr wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Emirates Club 1+ goals
78%
Emirates Club 2+ goals
45%
Emirates Club 3+ goals
20%
Al Nasr 1+ goals
82%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
52%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Emirates Club (draw refunded)
45%
Al Nasr (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emirates Club at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Al Nasr away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emirates Club attack 1.44 + Al Nasr defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Al Nasr attack 1.34 + Emirates Club defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Emirates Club scores more
34%
level
23%
Al Nasr scores more
43%

Al Nasr at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Álvaro Negredo↳ Jassim Al Balooshi
36'
C. Diabaté↳ Walid Amber Esmail
46'
Mohammed Jamal← Abdullah Musa
63'
Samuel← Mohamed Al Akbari
76'
Álvaro NegredoPenalty
80'
Saeed Al Ghafri← Bakari Kone
81'
Samuel↳ Jassim Al Balooshi
83'
Eisa Ali← B. Ibini-Isei
84'
Habib Fardan Abdualla← Marquinhos Gabriel
84'
C. Diabaté↳ Walid Amber Esmail
86'
Mubarak Saeed← Jassim Al Balooshi
90+7'
Eisa Ali

League #301: Emirates Club 3–3 Al Nasr

Emirates Club and Al Nasr drew 3-3 in League #301 on October 31, 2018.

Goals: Álvaro Negredo (32', 76' pen), C. Diabaté (36', 84'), Samuel (81'), Eisa Ali (90+7').

The match was played at Emirates Club Stadium (Rās al-Khaymah (Ras al-Khaimah)).