Al Nasr 2–1 Emirates Club: Result & Stats

Al Nasr

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Emirates Club

12/23/2023

League #301 · Round 12Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Nasr51%

×Draw23%

Emirates Club25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NasrExpected goals in this matchEmirates Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.17

Al Nasr

1.77

Emirates Club

1.17

Al Nasr creates 51% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Al Nasr

1.67

Emirates Club

1.24

allows per match

Al Nasr

1.10

Emirates Club

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nasr+0.00on par

Emirates Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasr ↓

Emirates Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Nasr or draw

75%

Al Nasr or Emirates Club

77%

Draw or Emirates Club

49%

Winning margin

Al Nasr wins by 2+

28%

Emirates Club wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Nasr 1+ goals

83%

Al Nasr 2+ goals

53%

Al Nasr 3+ goals

26%

Emirates Club 1+ goals

69%

Emirates Club 2+ goals

33%

Emirates Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Nasr (draw refunded)

67%

Emirates Club (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasr at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Emirates Club away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasr attack 1.67 + Emirates Club defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Emirates Club attack 1.24 + Al Nasr defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Nasr scores more

51%

level

23%

Emirates Club scores more

25%

Al Nasr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff