Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra — League #301 2026

Al Nasr
Al Nasr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
Khalid Al Darmaki 43' (OG)
Álvaro Negredo 28'
11/4/2018League #301League #301 · Round 9Maktoum Bin Rashid al Maktoum Stadium (Al-Shabab Stadium) (Dubayy (Dubai))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al Nasr53%
×Draw23%
Al-Dhafra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nasr
1.87
Al-Dhafra
1.19

Al Nasr creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al Nasr
1.79
Al-Dhafra
1.12

allows per match

Al Nasr
1.25
Al-Dhafra
1.95

finishing

Al Nasr+0.00on par
Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasr ↓

Al-Dhafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Nasr or draw
76%
Al Nasr or Al-Dhafra
77%
Draw or Al-Dhafra
47%

Winning margin

Al Nasr wins by 2+
30%
Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Nasr 1+ goals
85%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
56%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
29%
Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
70%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
33%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Nasr (draw refunded)
69%
Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasr at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasr attack 1.79 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.87

Al-Dhafra attack 1.12 + Al Nasr defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Nasr scores more
53%
level
23%
Al-Dhafra scores more
24%

Al Nasr at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Álvaro Negredo↳ Y. Cabaye
30'
Saeed Jassim Saleh← Abdullah Abdulqader
43'
Khalid Al DarmakiOwn goal
52'
Amir Mubarak Ghanim← Jassim Al Balooshi
57'
Mohamad Ibrahim Alhamadi← Bader Al Attas
87'
Masoud Sulaiman← Y. Cabaye
90+4'
Alhusain Saleh← Marquinhos Gabriel

Match Recap: Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra

Al Nasr beat Al-Dhafra 2-0 in League #301 on November 4, 2018.

Goals: Álvaro Negredo (28'), Khalid Al Darmaki (43' o.g.).

The match was played at Maktoum Bin Rashid al Maktoum Stadium (Al-Shabab Stadium) (Dubayy (Dubai)).