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Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra — League #301 2026

Al Nasr
Al Nasr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
L. Milivojevic 12' (pen)
R. Djooh 4' (OG)
11/21/2025League #301League #301 · Round 8Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Nasr52%
×Draw23%
Al-Dhafra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nasr
1.77
Al-Dhafra
1.16

Al Nasr creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al Nasr
1.69
Al-Dhafra
1.11

allows per match

Al Nasr
1.20
Al-Dhafra
1.85

finishing

Al Nasr+0.00on par
Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasr ↓

Al-Dhafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Nasr or draw
75%
Al Nasr or Al-Dhafra
77%
Draw or Al-Dhafra
48%

Winning margin

Al Nasr wins by 2+
28%
Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Nasr 1+ goals
83%
Al Nasr 2+ goals
53%
Al Nasr 3+ goals
26%
Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
69%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
32%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Nasr (draw refunded)
67%
Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasr at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasr attack 1.69 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al-Dhafra attack 1.11 + Al Nasr defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Nasr scores more
52%
level
23%
Al-Dhafra scores more
25%

Al Nasr at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. MilivojevicAl NasrAl Nasr · M
7.9

Match Events

4'
R. DjoohOwn goal
10'
Ramón MiérezPenalty confirmed
12'
L. MilivojevicPenalty
34'
Mouhcine Rabja
44'
Mouhcine Rabja
46'
I. Al Hosani← R. Yaslam
53'
Zayed SultanGoal cancelled
57'
Marcelinho← M. El Khaloui
57'
Rangel← E. Noumonvi
58'
Rostand Djooh
65'
C. Doumbia← R. Mierez
68'
Leonard Offoe Amesimeku
71'
Leonard Offoe AmesimekuVAR
78'
F. Saleh← A. Soussi
80'
M. Al Harbi← R. Djooh
82'
M. Azarkan← A. Toure
90+1'
C. Amzar← Felipe Motta
90+2'
H. Mahdi← M. Ndiaye

Possession

56%Al

Shots

13Al

Pass accuracy

52%Al

Statistics

AlAl-Dhafra
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots14
3Corners5
13Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target4
4Off Target6
4Blocked4
8Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
455Total Passes348
410Accurate Passes288
90%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra

Al Nasr beat Al-Dhafra 2-0 in League #301 on November 21, 2025.

Goals: R. Djooh (4' o.g.), L. Milivojevic (12' pen).

Al Nasr controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Al Maktoum Stadium in Dubai.