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Memphis 901 vs Tulsa Roughnecks — USL Championship 2018

Memphis 901
Memphis 901
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
6/23/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 21AutoZone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Memphis 90150%
×Draw23%
Tulsa Roughnecks27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memphis 901
1.77
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.23

Memphis 901 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 130 away

creates per match

Memphis 901
1.73
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.19

allows per match

Memphis 901
1.27
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw
73%
Memphis 901 or Tulsa Roughnecks
77%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
50%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+
27%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals
83%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
53%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
26%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
71%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
35%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
65%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Memphis 901 scores more
50%
level
23%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
27%

Memphis 901 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Memphis 901 vs Tulsa Roughnecks

Memphis 901 beat Tulsa Roughnecks 2-0 in USL Championship on June 23, 2022.

The match was played at AutoZone Park in Memphis.