FC Tulsa 1–0 Memphis 901: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Memphis 901

7/21/2024

USL Championship · Round 23ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

FC Tulsa39%

×Draw25%

Memphis 90136%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchMemphis 901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.40

FC Tulsa

1.47

Memphis 901

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 93 away

1.45

creates per match

1.37

1.42

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FC Tulsa

1.45

Memphis 901

1.37

allows per match

FC Tulsa

1.42

Memphis 901

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Memphis 901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Memphis 901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

64%

FC Tulsa or Memphis 901

75%

Draw or Memphis 901

61%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

19%

Memphis 901 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

77%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

43%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

18%

Memphis 901 1+ goals

75%

Memphis 901 2+ goals

41%

Memphis 901 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

52%

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Memphis 901 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Memphis 901 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.47

Memphis 901 attack 1.37 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

39%

level

25%

Memphis 901 scores more

36%

FC Tulsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff