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Memphis 901 vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Memphis 901
Memphis 901
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
10/7/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 42AutoZone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Memphis 90154%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memphis 901
1.96
Sporting KC II
1.23

Memphis 901 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 66 away

creates per match

Memphis 901
1.73
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Memphis 901
1.27
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw
76%
Memphis 901 or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
46%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+
31%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals
86%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
58%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
31%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
71%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
35%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
69%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Memphis 901 scores more
54%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
24%

Memphis 901 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Memphis 901 vs Sporting KC II

Memphis 901 beat Sporting KC II 3-1 in USL Championship on October 7, 2021.

The match was played at AutoZone Park in Memphis.