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Memphis 901 vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Memphis 901
Memphis 901
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
10/6/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 44AutoZone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Memphis 90147%
×Draw24%
Rio Grande Valley29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memphis 901
1.69
Rio Grande Valley
1.26

Memphis 901 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

creates per match

Memphis 901
1.73
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Memphis 901
1.27
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw
71%
Memphis 901 or Rio Grande Valley
76%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
53%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+
25%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals
82%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
50%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
24%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
72%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
36%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
62%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Memphis 901 scores more
47%
level
24%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
29%

Memphis 901 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Memphis 901 2–2 Rio Grande Valley

Memphis 901 and Rio Grande Valley drew 2-2 in USL Championship on October 6, 2022.

The match was played at AutoZone Park in Memphis.