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Memphis 901 vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Memphis 901
Memphis 901
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
9/29/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 55AutoZone Park (Memphis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Memphis 90153%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memphis 901
1.96
Philadelphia Union II
1.29

Memphis 901 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 43 away

creates per match

Memphis 901
1.73
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Memphis 901
1.27
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw
75%
Memphis 901 or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
47%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+
31%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals
86%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
58%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
31%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
72%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
37%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
68%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Memphis 901 scores more
53%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
25%

Memphis 901 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Memphis 901 5–0 Philadelphia Union II

Memphis 901 beat Philadelphia Union II 5-0 in USL Championship on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at AutoZone Park (Memphis).