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Memphis 901 vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Memphis 901
Memphis 901
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
7/28/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 37AutoZone Park (Memphis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Memphis 90149%
×Draw24%
Ottawa Fury27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memphis 901
1.69
Ottawa Fury
1.20

Memphis 901 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Memphis 901
1.73
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Memphis 901
1.27
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw
73%
Memphis 901 or Ottawa Fury
76%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
51%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+
26%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals
82%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
50%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
24%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
70%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
34%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
64%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Memphis 901 scores more
49%
level
24%
Ottawa Fury scores more
27%

Memphis 901 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Memphis 901 2–0 Ottawa Fury

Memphis 901 beat Ottawa Fury 2-0 in USL Championship on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at AutoZone Park (Memphis).