Memphis 901 0–1 OKC Energy: Result & Stats

Memphis 901

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

OKC Energy

6/20/2021

USL Championship · Round 13AutoZone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Memphis 90149%

×Draw24%

OKC Energy27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Memphis 901Expected goals in this matchOKC Energy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

Memphis 901

1.75

OKC Energy

1.25

Memphis 901 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 62 away

1.73

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Memphis 901

1.73

OKC Energy

1.24

allows per match

Memphis 901

1.27

OKC Energy

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

OKC Energy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw

73%

Memphis 901 or OKC Energy

76%

Draw or OKC Energy

51%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+

27%

OKC Energy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals

83%

Memphis 901 2+ goals

52%

Memphis 901 3+ goals

25%

OKC Energy 1+ goals

71%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

36%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)

64%

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Memphis 901 scores more

49%

level

24%

OKC Energy scores more

27%

Memphis 901 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff