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Memmingen vs Wacker Burghausen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
N. Muller 72'
4/24/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 31Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Memmingen29%
×Draw24%
Wacker Burghausen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.24
Wacker Burghausen
1.65

Wacker Burghausen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 89 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.03
Wacker Burghausen
1.46

allows per match

Memmingen
1.83
Wacker Burghausen
1.45

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Wacker Burghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
53%
Memmingen or Wacker Burghausen
76%
Draw or Wacker Burghausen
71%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
12%
Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
71%
Memmingen 2+ goals
35%
Memmingen 3+ goals
13%
Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
81%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
49%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
38%
Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.45 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.46 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Memmingen scores more
29%
level
24%
Wacker Burghausen scores more
47%

Wacker Burghausen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
N. Muller
Memmingen
Wacker
M. Günes
Manager: M. Günes
M. Kostner
Manager: M. Kostner

Match Recap: Memmingen vs Wacker Burghausen

Wacker Burghausen beat Memmingen 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 24, 2026.

Goals: N. Muller (72').

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.