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Memmingen vs Schalding-Heining — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
4/25/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 31Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Memmingen43%
×Draw25%
Schalding-Heining32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.50
Schalding-Heining
1.26

Memmingen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 49 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.39
Schalding-Heining
1.67

allows per match

Memmingen
0.85
Schalding-Heining
1.61

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Schalding-Heining →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
68%
Memmingen or Schalding-Heining
75%
Draw or Schalding-Heining
57%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
21%
Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
78%
Memmingen 2+ goals
44%
Memmingen 3+ goals
19%
Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
72%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
36%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
57%
Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Schalding-Heining away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.39 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Schalding-Heining attack 1.67 + Memmingen defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Memmingen scores more
43%
level
25%
Schalding-Heining scores more
32%

Memmingen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Memmingen 4–0 Schalding-Heining

Memmingen beat Schalding-Heining 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.