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Memmingen vs Kottern — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kottern
Kottern
D. Hoffmann 51'
M. Jocham 18'
11/5/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 18Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Memmingen45%
×Draw26%
Kottern29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.48
Kottern
1.15

Memmingen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.39
Kottern
1.44

allows per match

Memmingen
0.85
Kottern
1.56

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Kottern+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Kottern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
71%
Memmingen or Kottern
74%
Draw or Kottern
55%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
22%
Kottern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
77%
Memmingen 2+ goals
43%
Memmingen 3+ goals
19%
Kottern 1+ goals
68%
Kottern 2+ goals
32%
Kottern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
60%
Kottern (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Kottern away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.39 + Kottern defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kottern attack 1.44 + Memmingen defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Memmingen scores more
45%
level
26%
Kottern scores more
29%

Memmingen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Jocham
51'
D. Hoffmann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Memmingen 0–2 Kottern

Kottern beat Memmingen 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 5, 2022.

Goals: M. Jocham (18'), D. Hoffmann (51').

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.