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Memmingen vs Garching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Memmingen
Memmingen
PST
17:30
Garching
Garching
5/1/2020Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 31Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Memmingen46%
×Draw22%
Garching32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.93
Garching
1.58

Memmingen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 12 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.03
Garching
1.33

allows per match

Memmingen
1.83
Garching
2.83

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
68%
Memmingen or Garching
78%
Draw or Garching
54%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
26%
Garching wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
85%
Memmingen 2+ goals
57%
Memmingen 3+ goals
30%
Garching 1+ goals
79%
Garching 2+ goals
47%
Garching 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
59%
Garching (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.93

Garching attack 1.33 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Memmingen scores more
46%
level
22%
Garching scores more
32%

Memmingen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Memmingen face Garching (Regionalliga - Bayern)

Regionalliga - Bayern returns with Memmingen hosting Garching. Match starts May 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Memmingen host Garching at Memminger Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.