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Garching vs Memmingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Garching
Garching
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Memmingen
Memmingen
4/8/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 27Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Garching20%
×Draw23%
Memmingen57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
0.93
Memmingen
1.77

Memmingen creates 90% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Garching
0.94
Memmingen
1.58

allows per match

Garching
1.97
Memmingen
0.91

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Memmingen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Memmingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Garching or draw
43%
Garching or Memmingen
77%
Draw or Memmingen
80%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
7%
Memmingen wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
61%
Garching 2+ goals
24%
Garching 3+ goals
7%
Memmingen 1+ goals
83%
Memmingen 2+ goals
53%
Memmingen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
26%
Memmingen (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

Memmingen away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.94 + Memmingen defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Memmingen attack 1.58 + Garching defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Garching scores more
20%
level
23%
Memmingen scores more
57%

Memmingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Garching 0–2 Memmingen

Memmingen beat Garching 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.