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Memmingen vs Bayreuth — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bayreuth
Bayreuth
11/11/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 20Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Memmingen27%
×Draw24%
Bayreuth49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.22
Bayreuth
1.73

Bayreuth creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.03
Bayreuth
1.62

allows per match

Memmingen
1.83
Bayreuth
1.41

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Bayreuth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
51%
Memmingen or Bayreuth
76%
Draw or Bayreuth
73%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
11%
Bayreuth wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
70%
Memmingen 2+ goals
34%
Memmingen 3+ goals
12%
Bayreuth 1+ goals
82%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
52%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
35%
Bayreuth (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Bayreuth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bayreuth attack 1.62 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Memmingen scores more
27%
level
24%
Bayreuth scores more
49%

Bayreuth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Memmingen 1–2 Bayreuth

Bayreuth beat Memmingen 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.