Memmingen 1–4 Bayern München II: Result & Stats

Memmingen

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Bayern München II

8/29/2025

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 6Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Memmingen25%

×Draw22%

Bayern München II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MemmingenExpected goals in this matchBayern München II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.93

Memmingen

1.27

Bayern München II

1.93

Bayern München II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 74 away

1.03

creates per match

2.03

1.83

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Memmingen

1.03

Bayern München II

2.03

allows per match

Memmingen

1.83

Bayern München II

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par

Bayern München II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Bayern München II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw

47%

Memmingen or Bayern München II

78%

Draw or Bayern München II

75%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+

10%

Bayern München II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals

72%

Memmingen 2+ goals

36%

Memmingen 3+ goals

14%

Bayern München II 1+ goals

85%

Bayern München II 2+ goals

57%

Bayern München II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)

32%

Bayern München II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Bayern München II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Bayern München II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bayern München II attack 2.03 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Memmingen scores more

25%

level

22%

Bayern München II scores more

53%

Bayern München II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bayern München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff