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Melksham Town vs Yeovil Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Melksham Town
Melksham Town
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Yeovil Town
Yeovil Town
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Melksham Town12%
×Draw14%
Yeovil Town74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melksham Town
1.13
Yeovil Town
3.00

Yeovil Town creates 165% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Melksham Town
1.00
Yeovil Town
3.25

allows per match

Melksham Town
2.75
Yeovil Town
1.25

finishing

Melksham Town+0.00on par
Yeovil Town+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melksham Town ↓

Yeovil Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Melksham Town or draw
26%
Melksham Town or Yeovil Town
86%
Draw or Yeovil Town
88%

Winning margin

Melksham Town wins by 2+
4%
Yeovil Town wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Melksham Town 1+ goals
68%
Melksham Town 2+ goals
31%
Melksham Town 3+ goals
11%
Yeovil Town 1+ goals
95%
Yeovil Town 2+ goals
79%
Yeovil Town 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Melksham Town (draw refunded)
13%
Yeovil Town (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melksham Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Yeovil Town away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melksham Town attack 1.00 + Yeovil Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Yeovil Town attack 3.25 + Melksham Town defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Melksham Town scores more
12%
level
14%
Yeovil Town scores more
74%

Yeovil Town at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Yeovil Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melksham Town vs Yeovil Town

Yeovil Town beat Melksham Town 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.