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Melita vs Xewkija Tigers — FA Trophy 2020

Melita
Melita
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Xewkija Tigers
Xewkija Tigersadvanced
12/6/2025FA TrophyFA Trophy · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Melita32%
×Draw25%
Xewkija Tigers43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melita
1.25
Xewkija Tigers
1.50

Xewkija Tigers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Melita
0.33
Xewkija Tigers
1.00

allows per match

Melita
2.00
Xewkija Tigers
2.17

finishing

Melita+0.00on par
Xewkija Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melita ↓

Xewkija Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Melita or draw
57%
Melita or Xewkija Tigers
75%
Draw or Xewkija Tigers
68%

Winning margin

Melita wins by 2+
13%
Xewkija Tigers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Melita 1+ goals
71%
Melita 2+ goals
36%
Melita 3+ goals
13%
Xewkija Tigers 1+ goals
78%
Xewkija Tigers 2+ goals
44%
Xewkija Tigers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Melita (draw refunded)
42%
Xewkija Tigers (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melita at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Xewkija Tigers away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melita attack 0.33 + Xewkija Tigers defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Xewkija Tigers attack 1.00 + Melita defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melita scores more
32%
level
25%
Xewkija Tigers scores more
43%

Xewkija Tigers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Xewkija Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Melita 0–1 Xewkija Tigers

Xewkija Tigers beat Melita 1-0 in FA Trophy on December 6, 2025.