Melita 5–7 Qala Saints: Result & Stats | FA Trophy

Melita

AET

5 – 7

HT: 0 – 0

Qala Saints

12/13/2023

FA Trophy · Preliminary RoundCharles Abela Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Melita18%

×Draw22%

Qala Saints60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MelitaExpected goals in this matchQala Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.88

Melita

0.92

Qala Saints

1.88

Qala Saints creates 104% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.33

creates per match

1.75

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Melita

0.33

Qala Saints

1.75

allows per match

Melita

2.00

Qala Saints

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melita+0.00on par

Qala Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melita ↓

Qala Saints →

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Melita or draw

40%

Melita or Qala Saints

78%

Draw or Qala Saints

82%

Winning margin

Melita wins by 2+

Qala Saints wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Melita 1+ goals

60%

Melita 2+ goals

23%

Melita 3+ goals

Qala Saints 1+ goals

85%

Qala Saints 2+ goals

56%

Qala Saints 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Melita (draw refunded)

23%

Qala Saints (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melita at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Qala Saints away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melita attack 0.33 + Qala Saints defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Qala Saints attack 1.75 + Melita defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Melita scores more

18%

level

22%

Qala Saints scores more

60%

Qala Saints at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Qala Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff