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Melilla vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
11/24/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla46%
×Draw32%
Sporting Gijón II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.13
Sporting Gijón II
0.69

Melilla creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
78%
Melilla or Sporting Gijón II
68%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
54%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
20%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
68%
Melilla 2+ goals
31%
Melilla 3+ goals
11%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
50%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
15%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
67%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Melilla scores more
46%
level
32%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
22%

Melilla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla 2 – 0 Sporting Gijón II

Melilla beat Sporting Gijón II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.