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Melilla vs Recreativo Huelva — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
9/17/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Melilla42%
×Draw29%
Recreativo Huelva29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.19
Recreativo Huelva
0.94

Melilla creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.00
Recreativo Huelva
0.87

allows per match

Melilla
1.00
Recreativo Huelva
1.39

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
71%
Melilla or Recreativo Huelva
71%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
58%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
18%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
70%
Melilla 2+ goals
33%
Melilla 3+ goals
12%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
61%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
24%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
59%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.00 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Melilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melilla scores more
42%
level
29%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
29%

Melilla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla 0 – 0 Recreativo Huelva

Melilla and Recreativo Huelva drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.