Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Melilla vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
1/14/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Melilla32%
×Draw30%
Real Murcia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
0.98
Real Murcia
1.09

Real Murcia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.00
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Melilla
1.00
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
62%
Melilla or Real Murcia
70%
Draw or Real Murcia
68%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
12%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
62%
Melilla 2+ goals
26%
Melilla 3+ goals
8%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
66%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
30%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
46%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.00 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Melilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Melilla scores more
32%
level
30%
Real Murcia scores more
38%

Real Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melilla vs Real Murcia

Melilla and Real Murcia drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.